Once upon a time, Hollywood looked to China as its Eldorado. A growing market, an audience hungry for entertainment and blockbusters, a future that seemed to be written with billions of yuan. But that time now seems to belong to the past. This is demonstrated by the resounding flop of Thunderbolts, the new Marvel film, which in China recorded the worst debut for a title of the studio since 2011: just 18 million yuan (about 2.5 million dollars) on the first day. Mind-boggling numbers... but in the negative.
Hollywood and China: the end of a love story? Thunderbolts marks a point of no return
The success of Pacific Rim in China was such that it justified a sequel that otherwise would never have seen the light. At the time, the enthusiasm of the Chinese public for American films seemed unstoppable. Avengers: Endgame grossed 4.25 billion yuan in 2019, remaining in the top 10 of all time. Yet Endgame also represents the pinnacle of an era that today seems unrepeatable. Thunderbolts is not an isolated case: Captain America: Brave New World stopped at 14.3 million dollars, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever debuted with 21 million despite months of delay, and the seven Marvel films released after the pandemic have collected a total of 258 million yuan - less than Spider-Man: Far From Home alone in 2019 (248 million at its debut).
A generational and cultural change
The Chinese public has changed. It's not just about numbers, but about tastes and perceptions. A 49-year-old man summed up the sentiment with a bitter but significant phrase: “I miss the times when you could see wonderful Hollywood films like Titanic, Speed, True Lies and Iron Man in the cinema. The new generations don’t see Hollywood with the same eyes.” Thanks to the pandemic, but also to a changed cultural landscape, local productions have won the hearts of viewers. Films like Ne Zha and The Wandering Earth have surpassed American giants, while Ne Zha 2 recently set new records. And in 2023, no Hollywood film has managed to enter the top 10 of the Chinese box office.
The decision by the China Film Administration to reduce the number of US films distributed in the country seems to seal the end of an era. This measure would once have sparked controversy and political accusations – and in part it did, in response to the trade war started by Donald Trump – but today it also reflects a changed interest of the Chinese public. Even once-powerful franchises are losing steam: Fast & Furious 10 grossed $139.5 million, less than half the peak reached by Chapter 8 in 2017 ($392.8 million). The exception that proves the rule is Avatar: The Sense of Water, which earned almost $246 million, but it is clear that these are isolated phenomena.
Hollywood will soon have to accept that China is no longer its most profitable international market. The overtaking by local cinema is now evident, and the possibility of a Chinese film becoming the highest-grossing film of all time thanks to the domestic market alone is no longer so remote. There are exceptions – Avatar 3, Alien: Romulus, Godzilla and Kong – but they are increasingly rare. For the American industry, it is time to rethink strategies, stories and approaches. Because if Hollywood was once synonymous with cinema, today, at least in China, it is no longer.
