I’m sitting here on May 2, 2025, at 11:05 AM IST, scrolling through the latest box office updates, and I can’t contain my excitement: Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning are tracking to open with a combined $200M+ over the Memorial Day weekend! As a lifelong movie fan—I’ve been obsessed since I watched The Lion King with my mom in the ‘90s—this news has me buzzing. The idea of a family-friendly Disney remake and a high-octane Tom Cruise finale sharing the spotlight feels like a perfect storm of cinematic magic. Let’s break down why this projected clash is a big deal, what it means for both franchises, and why I’m already planning my double-feature weekend.
A Barbenheimer-Style Showdown in the Making
The latest tracking data has Lilo & Stitch, Disney’s live-action remake of the 2002 animated classic, eyeing a $120M four-day opening, while Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the eighth installment in the Tom Cruise-led franchise, is projected to hit $80M over the same Friday-Monday frame. That’s a combined $200M+ for the two films alone, which could make this the biggest Memorial Day weekend ever at the box office, potentially surpassing the 2013 record of $314M set by Fast & Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III. I remember the Barbenheimer craze of 2023—my friends and I did a double feature of Barbie and Oppenheimer, and the energy in the theater was electric. This feels like a similar moment, with Lilo & Stitch drawing families and nostalgic millennials like me, while Mission: Impossible pulls in action fans and Cruise loyalists.
What I love about this pairing is how complementary they are. Lilo & Stitch is all heart, following a lonely Hawaiian girl named Lilo (played by newcomer Maia Kealoha) who befriends the chaotic alien Stitch (voiced by Chris Sanders, who also voiced him in the original). I grew up watching the animated film on repeat—Stitch’s mischievous charm always cracked me up, and the story’s themes of family hit me hard as an only child who often felt out of place. Meanwhile, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning promises to be a spectacle, with Cruise returning as Ethan Hunt for what’s being billed as the franchise’s grand finale. The trailers tease death-defying stunts (classic Cruise!), and with a cast including Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg, and Ving Rhames, I’m expecting an emotional send-off after nearly 30 years of this series. I’ve been a fan since I watched Mission: Impossible III with my dad, marveling at Cruise’s intensity—those stunts still give me goosebumps.
Why These Projections Feel So Significant
For Disney, Lilo & Stitch’s $120M projection is a beacon of hope after some rough patches with their live-action remakes. Snow White earlier this year was a disaster, grossing just $170M worldwide against a $270M budget—I watched it with my cousin and found it lackluster, with the controversy around Rachel Zegler not helping. But Lilo & Stitch seems to be striking a different chord. Its trailer racked up 158M views in 24 hours, making it Disney’s second-most-viewed live-action trailer ever, and it’s resonating with women under 25, Hispanic and Latina audiences, families, and teens. As someone who’s part of the millennial crowd with nostalgia for the original, I can see why—Stitch has been a pop culture icon for years (I even have a Stitch plushie on my shelf!). If it hits or exceeds these numbers, it could almost triple Snow White’s $42.6M opening, signaling a comeback for Disney’s live-action slate.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning’s $80M projection is equally impressive, marking a potential franchise-best opening, surpassing 2018’s Fallout’s $61M three-day debut. The last film, Dead Reckoning Part One, underperformed with $571M globally against a $291M budget, so this is a chance for the series to rebound. With a reported $400M budget, Final Reckoning needs to gross over $1B to break even, which is a tall order, but the early buzz—bolstered by a three-week IMAX exclusivity and Cruise’s signature stunts—gives me hope. I remember watching Top Gun: Maverick in 2022, which opened to $160M over Memorial Day and became Cruise’s biggest hit ever. If Final Reckoning can capture even a fraction of that magic, it’ll be a win for Paramount and a fitting cap to Ethan Hunt’s journey.
What This Means for Me as a Fan
This Memorial Day clash hits me on a personal level. Lilo & Stitch brings back memories of simpler times—watching the animated film with my mom, singing along to “Hawaiian Roller Coaster Ride,” and feeling seen by Lilo’s struggle to fit in. I’ve always loved how the story celebrates found family, something that resonates with me as someone who’s built my own “ohana” with friends over the years. On the other hand, Mission: Impossible taps into my adrenaline-junkie side. I’ve always admired Cruise’s dedication—he’s 62 and still doing his own stunts! The thought of this being Ethan Hunt’s final mission makes me emotional; I’ve grown up with this character, and I want to see him go out on a high note.
But I can’t help but wonder if the competition might hurt both films. Lilo & Stitch’s family appeal should give it an edge, but Mission: Impossible’s 2-hour-51-minute runtime could limit showtimes, potentially capping its earnings. Some analysts argue the two films target different audiences, so they might not cannibalize each other’s box office, but I’m skeptical—Memorial Day is a busy weekend, and families might only have time for one movie. Still, the buzz on platforms like X shows fans are hyped, with many calling it a “Stitchion: Impossible” weekend, echoing the Barbenheimer vibe. I’m planning to see both on May 23, probably starting with Lilo & Stitch for some nostalgic feels, then Mission: Impossible to get my heart racing.
A Bigger Picture for 2025’s Box Office
This Memorial Day showdown comes at a time when the box office is seeing a mix of highs and lows. A Minecraft Movie is killing it with $816M worldwide and a viral hit in “Steve’s Lava Chicken,” while Thunderbolts’ $70M opening earlier this month was decent but not spectacular. On the flip side, 2024 had some brutal flops like Joker: Folie à Deux and Kraven the Hunter, which I wrote about recently. Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible feel like a much-needed boost for theaters, especially after last year’s lackluster Memorial Day led by Furiosa’s $132.2M frame. If these projections hold—or grow, as they did for Minecraft with a last-minute push—theaters could be in for a record-breaking holiday.
I’m also keeping an eye on other 2025 releases like Wednesday Season 2, which just added Anthony Michael Hall, and The Elephant Man with Adam Pearson, set to film next year. But for now, Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning have my full attention. Whether you’re in it for the heartwarming chaos of Stitch or the high-stakes action of Ethan Hunt, this Memorial Day weekend is shaping up to be unmissable. I’ll be there, popcorn in hand, ready for both—how about you? Let’s make this a moviegoing event to remember!
Source: Deadline
